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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."